Principal investigators

Rein Haarsma (KNMI), Alessio Bellucci (CMCC)

Partners

MPG, METO, CMCC, MFCNRM, KNMI, DMI, SMHI

Abstract

In this work package, ensemble simulations will be made with state-of-the-art ESMs to explore the effects of new model components on climate predictions. To this aim, two types of simulations will be performed.

Decadal Prediction simulations

Decadal predictions for the period 2005-2035 will be made. These integrations will serve principally as a benchmark to evaluate the impact on the decadal predictions of the new initialisation schemes and new model components that will be implemented in COMBINE. These runs will follow the CMIP5 protocol so that they will also contribute to the AR5 of IPCC.

Potential Predictability simulations

To separately test the potential impact of the new initialisation procedures and the different new model components, Potencial Predictability runs are made. The aim of these runs is to investigate the potential impact of these components on the predictability of extensive testing.