Fulco Ludwig (WU), Daniela Jacob (MPI), Detlef van Vuuren (PBL)
MPG, METO, UNEXE, PBL, SMHI, WU, Uni Kassel, TUC, CYI, INPE
Work packages 1-7 dealt with incorporation of new components into ESMs and produced scenarios both without and with these new components, at both centennial and decadal time scales. Work package 8 feeds this information and data to the integrated assessment and impact models of selected, important sectors (climate policy, hydrology/water resources, primary production/agricultural production), with the aim to understand and quantify additional impact characteristics which may result from incorporating the new components into ESMs. This work package is structured in 3 sections:
- Implication of new components of ESM models for existing climate policy scenarios. This task will take up the information of the ESM model experiments and use the IMAGE model to interpret this in terms of:
- implications of stabilization and concentration peak scenarios and;
- implication for achieving temperature targets (in particular the EU objective of limiting global mean temperature change to 2oC).
- Impact assessment on global and regional scales:
- global and regional drought indices using a VIC-GLDAS global hydrological model
- evaluating vulnerability of water resources for the AR5 scenarios using the global hydrological/water resources models Water-LPJ and WaterGap
- investigate impacts on NPP, nature and agriculture sector using LPJ-ML
- investigate feedbacks with agriculture and other global economic policies using the integrated global assessment model
- investigate the impacts of the AR5 climate scenarios on the terrestrial environment and hydrosphere by inputting the AR5
scenarios to the CESR coupled system of models “LandSHIFT” & “WaterGAP”.
- Additional regional feedbacks and their influence on regional impacts:
- The Arctic case: The response of permafrost to Arctic warming is a key concern, with the potential for strong feedbacks through accelerated emissions of CH4 and CO2. Likewise, large feedbacks involving snow/sea-ice may impact strongly on the Arctic climate.
- The Amazon case: The Amazon basin has been repeatedly reported as one of the “hot spots” of regional earth system feedbacks with potential consequences for the global climate system. One particular focus of the Amazonia impact analysis will be to assess to what extent previous climate change scenario studies predicting a future Amazonia “dieback” need to be revisited considering more explicit dependencies between the C- and N-cycle processes in ESMs.
- The Mediterranean Case: We will focus on the simulation of regional feedbacks between aerosols, clouds and precipitation. The local scales will be addresses for Greece (Thessaly and Crete) and Cyprus by applying further downscaling, hydrological modelling and agricultural assessments.