Principal investigators

Doug Smith (METO), Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF)

Partners

MPG, METO, CMCC, MFCNRM, ECMWF, SMHI, CERFACS

Abstract

The work developed in this work package is necessary to take advantage of the predictability of natural internal variability on decadal time scales and of the valuable information given by the existing global observing systems. It aims to initialize the ocean and sea ice components, which are the main contributors to the decadal internal variability of the climate system, by combining observations with model estimates, in a attempt that the information provided by the initial conditions is optimally projected into the future. This work package will provide initial conditions for the decadal forecasts in WP6, as well as an assessment of the most suitable initialisation methodology for decadal time scales. The activities carried out in this work package fall into two main categories: ocean initialisation and sea ice initialisation. In addition, there will be an assessment of different initialisation strategies.

Specific objectives:

  • Implement and assess initialisation of sea ice
  • Implement and assess initialisation of ocean with different techniques
  • Implement and assess initialisation strategies for dealing with model errors
  • Initialise the decadal forecasts to be carried out in WP6

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