Pierre Friedlingstein (UNEXE), Chris D. Jones (METO)
MPG, METO, CNRS, MFCNRM, KNMI, UiB, UNIVBRIS, UNEXE
In this work package new components for the C and N cycle are incorporated in Earth System Models (ESMs) and their performance analysed and evaluated. The work will be split into 3 phases: incorporation of individual new components into the ESM, coupling together of all new components in the ESM, analysis and evaluation of the model including the new components. In the first phase, the following new components will be implemented in the ESMs:
- Inclusion of land-use change. ESMs should be driven by human induced land cover changes (eg. deforestation). ESMs will quantify the biophysical and biogeochemical implications of these surface changes (METO, CNRS, MPG, KNMI, MF-CNRM, UiB).
- Prognostic land and ocean nitrogen cycle. Nitrogen is a key control on both land and ocean carbon cycle. Mineralization processes also induce emissions of N2O, a greenhouse gases with a century-long life time (METO, CNRS, MPG, UiB). Coastal zones are poorly represented in ESMs, they are the key transfer region between the land and the open ocean. Biogeochemistry of marginal seas, including nitrogen cycle will be implemented in ESMs (UiB).
- Permafrost and methane emissions. Potential melting of the permafrost and large release of CH4 could be an important positive feedback that we need to quantify. It has the potential to be as high as the existing climate-carbon cycle feedback (METO, CNRS).
- Wetlands and methane emissions. Wetlands are the largest present day natural source of methane. Their extent and rate of emission are directly controlled by climatic conditions (METO, CNRS, KNMI).
- Biomass fires. Natural and human-induced fires play a key role in CO2, CH4, trace gases and aerosols emissions but also on vegetation dynamics. Climate change is likely to affect the extent and frequency of fires (METO, CNRS).